{"id":3210,"date":"2024-11-08T10:38:37","date_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/meteo974.fr\/?p=3210"},"modified":"2024-11-08T10:38:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-08T06:38:39","slug":"tendances-saisonnieres-et-cycloniques-pour-lete-2024-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/meteo974.fr\/?p=3210","title":{"rendered":"Tendances saisonni\u00e8res (et cycloniques) pour l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2024-25"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Tendances saisonni\u00e8res (et cycloniques) pour l’\u00e9t\u00e9 2024-25<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Quelle tendance climatique pour la R\u00e9union et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les Mascareignes pour les trois mois d’\u00e9t\u00e9, de d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier ? Quid de l’activit\u00e9 cyclonique probable ? Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments de r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 suivre dans cet article…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cartes : ECMWF<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Diff\u00e9rents mod\u00e8les climatiques d\u00e9cryptent la synoptique m\u00e9t\u00e9orologique actuelle et calculent les d\u00e9viations probables pour les mois \u00e0 venir, notamment en terme de pr\u00e9cipitations et temp\u00e9ratures, \u00e0 l’\u00e9chelon global mais aussi plus local sur les Mascareignes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en ECMWF, calcul\u00e9 \u00e0 Reading dans la banlieue de Londres, figure parmi les plus fiables du monde, m\u00eame si un travail d’analyse et de comparaison \u00e0 d’autres mod\u00e8les permet de confirmer ou non ses tendances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour la p\u00e9riode d\u00e9cembre 2024 \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier voire mars 2025, le mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en voit pour la R\u00e9union et les Mascareignes des temp\u00e9ratures le plus souvent sup\u00e9rieures aux normales de saison de fa\u00e7on assez notable. L’oc\u00e9an indien, d\u00e9j\u00e0 trop chaud de 1,1 degr\u00e9s en de d\u00e9but novembre sur nos c\u00f4tes, devrait en effet maintenir une chaleur omnipr\u00e9sente au cours des prochains mois, mais si quelques incursions plus \u00ab\u00a0fra\u00eeches\u00a0\u00bb ne seront pas exclues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f4t\u00e9 pr\u00e9cipitations, un exc\u00e9dent plus ou moins marqu\u00e9 entre Madagascar, le centre et l’est de l’oc\u00e9an Indien, en passant par la R\u00e9union et Maurice, est envisag\u00e9. On pourrait donc s’attendre \u00e0 un \u00e9t\u00e9 plus arros\u00e9 qu’habituellement, notamment dans sa premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 en y regardant plus en d\u00e9tail. La fin de la saison estivale serait en revanche possiblement assez s\u00e8che.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un \u00e9t\u00e9 2024-25 qui pourrait ainsi s’av\u00e9rer \u00ab\u00a0moite\u00a0\u00bb sur l’\u00eele intense, globalement chaud et humide. Classique ? Oui et non : l’exc\u00e9dent pluviom\u00e9trique, a priori d\u00e8s d\u00e9cembre donc bien t\u00f4t pour la saison, serait notable. Et appr\u00e9ciable apr\u00e8s un hiver sec et long.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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L’anomalie chaude des eaux de l’oc\u00e9an Indien, sur les Mascareignes, mais aussi au nord et nord-est de celles-ci, devraient favoriser les cyclog\u00e9n\u00e8ses au cours des mois de d\u00e9cembre et janvier, sans doute assez t\u00f4t dans la saison dans un contexte humide. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les mod\u00e8les de notre service national M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France tablent d’ailleurs sur une activit\u00e9 normale (40% de risque) \u00e0 forte (50%) pour seulement 10% de probabilit\u00e9 de conna\u00eetre une saison cyclonique peu active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Selon toute vraisemblance, le risque cyclonique, pr\u00e9sent d\u00e8s ce mois de d\u00e9cembre 2024, pourrait perdurer jusqu’\u00e0 fin janvier voire mi-f\u00e9vrier, avant de d\u00e9cro\u00eetre sensiblement pour la fin de l’\u00e9t\u00e9, sans dispara\u00eetre totalement. Des trajectoires assez classiques du nord-est vers le sud-ouest pourraient par ailleurs exposer la R\u00e9union \u00e0 un ou plusieurs ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Graphique : M\u00e9t\u00e9o France R\u00e9union<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Une tendance \u00e0 prendre avec prudence, susceptible d’\u00e9voluer dans un sens ou dans l’autre au cours des prochaines semaines. Comme toujours \u00e0 l’approche de la saison cyclonique, il convient toutefois de prendre quelques premi\u00e8res pr\u00e9cautions, notamment en \u00e9laguant les arbres et en nettoyant les ravines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cat\u00e9gories<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2025<\/a> | <\/span>Ciel<\/a> | <\/span>cyclone<\/a> | <\/span>d\u00e9cembre<\/a> | <\/span>Ete<\/a> | <\/span>f\u00e9vrier<\/a> | <\/span>Foudre<\/a> | <\/span>inondations<\/a> | <\/span>la R\u00e9union<\/a> | <\/span>mars<\/a> | <\/span>Oc\u00e9an Indien<\/a> | <\/span>Orage<\/a> | <\/span>Ravines<\/a> | <\/span>Saison<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Quelle tendance climatique pour la R\u00e9union et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les Mascareignes pour les trois mois d’\u00e9t\u00e9, de d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier ? Quid de l’activit\u00e9 cyclonique probable ? Quelques \u00e9l\u00e9ments de r\u00e9ponses \u00e0 suivre dans cet article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3211,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"disabled","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,8,5],"tags":[93,69,12,94,90,96,82,15,44,97,52,78,99,91],"class_list":["post-3210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climat","category-meteo","category-ocean","tag-93","tag-ciel","tag-cyclone","tag-decembre","tag-ete-2","tag-fevrier","tag-foudre","tag-inondations","tag-la-reunion","tag-mars","tag-ocean-indien","tag-orage","tag-ravines","tag-saison"],"yoast_head":"\nTendances saisonni\u00e8res (et cycloniques) pour l'\u00e9t\u00e9 2024-25 - M\u00e9t\u00e9o974<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/meteo974.fr\/?p=3210\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tendances saisonni\u00e8res (et cycloniques) pour l'\u00e9t\u00e9 2024-25 - M\u00e9t\u00e9o974\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Quelle tendance climatique pour la R\u00e9union et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement les Mascareignes pour les trois mois d'\u00e9t\u00e9, de d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 f\u00e9vrier ? 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